Tokyo 'has 70% chance of powerful earthquake within 4 years

[Otaku]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/23/tokyo-powerful-earthquake-four-years

Tokyo's newer buildings are designed to withstand earthquakes, but the government estimates a magnitude-7.3 quake would kill 5,600.

Experts in Japan have warned that the chances of a powerful earthquake striking Tokyo in the next four years could be as high as 70%, a more alarming scenario for the city's 13 million people than predicted by the government.

The earthquake research institute at Tokyo University said that in the worst case, a quake of magnitude 7 would hit the southern part of metropolitan Tokyo by 2016, while the chances of a similar disaster occurring within 30 years are as high as 98%.

The government, by contrast, estimates the possibility of an earthquake that size striking the capital at 70% in the next three decades.

The warning comes less than a year after a magnitude-9 earthquake off the country's north-east coast triggered a tsunami that left about 23,000 people dead or missing.

The 11 March earthquake – the biggest in recorded history in Japan – and the tsunami that followed also triggered a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents.

Although newer buildings in Tokyo are built to withstand powerful earthquakes, a large quake in the city has the potential to cause widespread damage.

According to the government, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake would kill about 5,600 people, injure 159,000 and destroy 850,000 buildings.

Shinichi Sakai, an associate professor at the earthquake research institute, said that chances of a magnitude-7 earthquake striking Tokyo had increased since 11 March. "The government, individuals and corporations should make preparations for that now," he said.

Using data from Japan's meteorological agency, the institute said earthquakes of up to magnitude 6 had occurred five times more frequently than in normal years since the March disaster. The increased frequency has made it more likely that "the big one" could strike far sooner, it said.

The government said the researchers had reached their more worrying conclusion because they had used a different computer model to calculate the risks.

Days before the report was released, Tatsuo Hirano, the minister in charge of the recovery from the March disaster, said he was confident Tokyo could withstand a powerful quake. "Please rest assured and don't flee Tokyo," he said.

Hirano cited the lack of serious damage to Tokyo's buildings and transport infrastructure on 11 March as proof the city would be able to resist a large earthquake striking directly beneath or nearby.

But he added that data from multiple sources suggested there was a "high probability" that the city and the wider Kanto region were due for a powerful earthquake.

Last year's disaster caused widespread disruption to public transport in Tokyo, leaving tens of thousands of commuters stranded and unable to contact family and friends on overloaded mobile phone networks.

Japan accounts for about a fifth of the world's quakes of magnitude 6 or higher.

Safety standards for buildings improved after 1995, when an earthquake in Kobe killed more than 6,400 people, many of whom died in collapsed or burning buildings.

[jessen100]

"According to the government, a magnitude-7.3 earthquake would kill about 5,600 people, injure 159,000 and destroy 850,000 buildings."

is it just me or does someone need to reevaluate either their arithmatic skills or their vocabulary usage.

Maybe im crazy, but im of the opinion that if a building gets destroyed i would have to think that the majority of those inside it are going to die. with 850,000 desroyed, a mere 5,600 deaths seems incredibly generous?

but thats just my skewed opinion right?

[moolooman]

Everything will be sweet as man.

[Richard_BenoitEnglipedia Drone]

Think they are also including homes, which would go down easier than skyscrapers. And knowing the J culture, everyone will be safe in their office buildings doing free overtime at the time of the quake.

[jessen100]

very useful observaion.

so they obviously have found out that this will not happen at night. when people are alseep in their homes.

[Jeimuzu]

Mother Nature was decent enough to wait for office hours with last years earthquake, or maybe she's just a media whore who wanted to show off how awesome her killer tsunami would be.

[jeisensei]

I hate when newspapers pick up stories like this and run with them. The stories themselves do no good. All they do is make people nervous waiting for something that probably will not come in the first place.
Though I guess the scientists of Japan are doing this so they don't have to go on trial for murder like those Italian scientists that didn't predict an earthquake.
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-09-20/world/world_europe_italy-quake-trial_1_geophysics-and-vulcanology-l-aquila-seismic-activity?_s=PM:EUROPE

[Richard_BenoitEnglipedia Drone]

They said what "65%" chance people will be sleeping at the time. But we ALL know that it is more like 40% actually at home at the time, and 20% actually sleeping. This is Japan!

[Richard_BenoitEnglipedia Drone]

And jessen don't forget my "doing free overtime" comment which often brings them late into the night... that's what I was getting at.

[hokkaido1]

Everything will be sweet as man.

as sweet as what? Sendai 2011?



yabai

[Paul]

What difference does it make if it happens in 4 years or 40? The world as we know it is supposed to cease on December 21 of THIS year anyway.

[Jeimuzu]

At least it'll be a Friday so we can get out of work early.

[azuhlLt.]

What the papers say: 100% of the time, Japan is subject to over 80 earthquakes per-second. Earthquakes range from miniscule tremors to 7.5 and above. There is a high-probability that within the next four years, millions of people will die.

What the experts said: There is a slim chance that within the next four years, an earthquake of intense magnitude will occur within Japan. Previous data suggests that there is a possibility that casualties will be high, but we are not willing to speculate.

[jeisensei]

That's how papers sell (well actually I guess that is how papers used to sell...but that doesn't stop the headline writers does it?)

[Paul]

The "experts" are trying to cover their butts just in case a big one does occur and they didnt rub their crystal balls hard enough to give everyone an idea that one could come at any time.

My opinion here; I predict that a major earthquake will happen, 100% sure, sometime during my remaining lifetime! Now go and prepare yourselves!

Oh and if doesnt happen, sue me, I'll be dead anyway!

[jeisensei]

Oh and if doesnt happen, sue me, I'll be dead anyway!

We could always sue the fabulously rich Paul estate.

[Paul]

Oh and if doesnt happen, sue me, I'll be dead anyway!

We could always sue the fabulously rich Paul estate.

Everything is in my darling wife's name anyway!